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Navigacija u trenutnoj situaciji – Predviđanje temeljeno na scenariju – SAP Analytics Cloud

Navigation Kieler Woche

Tko je mogao pretpostaviti neviđeni globalni utjecaj i poremećaj COVID-19 kada su se prve vijesti pojavile početkom siječnja 2020.?

Tvrtke koje su bile izložene u Kini pogođene su rano i brzo, ali čak ni tada nitko nije predvidio i najvjerojatnije nije prognozirao globalni poremećaj, niti su pokrenuli predviđanje na temelju scenarija, niti su imali alate poput SAP Analytics Cloud-a.

Sve se to promijenilo početkom ožujka kada je COVID-19 stigao u Europu. Vlade su davale sve od sebe kako bi kontrolirale širenje različitim fazama zaključavanja.

U isto vrijeme, upravni odbori bili su suočeni s neviđenim nizom izazova koji su bili jedinstveni za njihovo poslovanje, njihov globalni otisak, pa čak su dosezali i do različitih poslovnih jedinica. Bilo je toliko pitanja za odgovoriti bez jasnog pogleda u budućnost i tako malo vremena. Što je s opskrbnim lancem, likvidnošću, prodajnim brojevima itd. kao i, što je najvažnije, dobrobiti vlastitih Zaposlenika?

Kako to ne bi bilo dovoljno za upravljanje, vladini propisi koji su se neprestano mijenjali uvedeni su bez ikakvog vremena.

S desne strane vidite plan švicarske vlade za ponovno otvaranje zemlje (26.05.2020.)

I trust that today (Mid June 2020); most companies are in some sort of rebound scenario or likely in a combination of various scenarios:

  • V– Fast but limited impact, almost back to normal
  • U– Fast impact and slowly but steadily recovering
  • W – Fast impact and hopefully not a second wave either Corona or e.g. GDP decline in some of your main markets
  • L – Fast impact but slow, continuous improvement

As mentioned before, companies are likely still facing lots of uncertainties and the FP&A Teams need to deliver and live up to the expectation of their management.

When I talked to our clients, there was, not surprisingly, a varied picture. Bottom line however is, that companies who invested into Business Partnering, agile processes and appropriate Software are better at managing the current crisis and feel more confident with their planning results.

Let’s look exemplary at Forecasting and Scenario-Planning:

In the traditional way, these are two separate topics. They are very likely run by different Teams with different background and knowledge. Forecasting is run at regular intervals and Scenario-Planning rather on-demand. While there is a Software solution in place for Planning/Budgeting/Forecasting, Scenario-planning might be an Excel solution.

Međutim, hitno je potrebno prijeći s jučer na danas.

Okolnosti ili osnova za prognozu mijenjaju se tako brzo da je u osnovi nemoguće doći do čvrste prognoze na temelju povijesnih podataka. Također, planovi scenarija podliježu brzim promjenama i moraju se brzo prilagođavati.

Drugim riječima, predviđanje i planiranje scenarija za sada se tope, ali možda i u budućnosti.

Vrijeme za promjene

There is a need for a change to address this. Switch from a granular bottom-up to a high level top down approach and run the forecast more frequently. To accommodate this, internal processes need to change. The Teams need to change as well from a pure FP&A or Business Team to a Team with Senior, cross-functional experts who focus on a few but the right business drivers and KPI’s. 

This Team acts swiftly and frequently runs the Forecast and has the Market and Business knowledge to run appropriate Scenarios.
Additional dedicated teams are still needed for deep dive analysis and forecasting on a granular level.
All above needs to be supported by an agile Software solution which can be run and operated independently by the business. 

Just take a moment and try to reflect this to your current situation

  • Are you able to put together such a Team at short notice?
  • Do you know the few but important and right business drivers?
  • Can you measure them?
  • Do you have a software solution which does support you in finding the right drivers?
  • Does this solution support Predictive topics, Scenario-based planning, and the usual Forecast? And in such a way does it take out a certain Human-Bias in the analysis?
  • Are you able to make use of it in a way of Self-Service or do you need to launch IT Projects / Change Requests first?

Obviously there would be many more questions. If you cannot answer all of them with a clear YES, there is a Call to Action

Only about one fifth of large multinational companies were ready to respond to the management expectations.

I am not talking about a lengthy project with lots of people involved, hardware purchase etc. I am talking about a lean and fast project with the SAP ANALYTICS CLOUD (SAC).

You only need a Laptop, an internet connection, a browser, a license and the appropriate data set and there you go. Either you connect live to your ERP and/or Datawarehouse Systems or just import the data via Excel file into the Cloud.

For more information about the SAP Analytics Cloud, visit our SAC homepage and watch our Webinar for a first introduction:  Challenging Times for Finance & Controlling Dashboards, Augmented Analytics and Planning

Once you have the data, you can start building your own Stories (Dashboards) which you populate with Reports, Analysis, KPI’s, interactive Forecasts and Scenarios. All these, you can build on your own without relying on strained IT-Resources and avoid the hassle of lengthy change requests. 

The Augmented Analytics features (see my Blog and Webinar to this topic) supports your efforts in an easy way to get more insights into your data and to get a solid Scenario-based forecasting which you can adjust and run anytime based on real time data. 

We will demo all this during our forthcoming Webinar on 18th June 2020 and gladly invite you to participate. Should the time not fit your schedule, just get in touch with us for a 1:1 session.

The Webinars audience are the Finance and Controlling teams but, of course,  everyone is welcome to join. It will always include Live Demos and be held in English. 

Duration: approx. 60min, all times are CEST.

Radujemo se što ćemo stupiti u kontakt s Vama.

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Expert Team
Benedikt Bleyer
Adrian Bourcevet
Roland J. Merz
Michael Meusel
Julian Rudack
Thorsten Stossmeister
Aginthan Thavarajasingam
Jan Wiesemann